₿BTC Indicators
Cycle 4 Volatility-Dampened Models (v2)

Bitcoin Macro Cycle Intelligence

Rolling 4-year (1,460-day) Z-score and percentile calibration accounting for ETF absorption, macro asset maturity, and diminishing cycle amplitude.

Deterministic On-Chain Telemetry (2026-10-26)Zero LLM synthesis · Computed directly from 5,945 daily blocks
Spot & Active Regime6/10 Value
$79,950
Deep Value / Accumulation Zone

6 of 10 indicators in accumulation/value

Cycle 4 Macro Low-53.1% Drawdown
$58,525
Printed on 2026-06-30
Cycle Peak (2025-10-06):$124,824
Hard Structural FloorHeld Within 1.9%
$57,000 – $60,000
Confluence Floor Zone
0.618 Fib: $57,422Elec. Cost: $60,490
Active Range CorridorConsolidation
$73K – $89K
200DMA Support to Kijun Pivot
200DMA: $72,978Kijun: $89,332
Click any card to inspect full 2010–2026 interactive chart

Supply Crossover (Dampened Float)

v2 Normalized
Loss Crossover (Value)

Normalized sigmoid around the 4-year cycle mean MVRV. Restores the full Profit/Loss crossover in every cycle.

Cycle Low (2026-06-30 @ $59K)85.6% Loss (v2) vs 44.9% (v1)
4Y Dampened VerdictLoss Crossover (86% Loss)
Synced 2026-10-26Interactive chart

MVRV Z-Score (Dampened 4Y σ)

v2 Normalized
Early Recovery (-1.0σ to 0σ)

4-Year Rolling Log-MVRV Z-Score. Eliminates the 2010 (+23z) scale distortion so modern cycles oscillate between -2σ and +2σ.

Cycle Low (2026-06-30 @ $59K)-1.15σ (v2) vs +0.18 (v1)
4Y Dampened VerdictUndervalued (< -1.0σ)
Synced 2026-10-26Interactive chart

Electrical Cost & Miner Margin Multiple

v2 Normalized
Low Margin

Added Miner Margin Multiple (Price / Electrical Cost) on the left axis to show every 1.0x floor touch.

Cycle Low (2026-06-30 @ $59K)1.05x ($55,616 cost)
4Y Dampened VerdictProduction Floor Hold (< 1.2x)
Synced 2026-10-26Interactive chart

200WMA Quantile (4Y Cycle Rank)

v2 Normalized
Cool (Post-Bottom)

4-Year Rolling Cycle Percentile. Fixes the all-time ranking ceiling where 2025 tops stalled at 72%.

Cycle Low (2026-06-30 @ $59K)14.8% (4Y Rank) vs 5.1% (All-Time)
4Y Dampened VerdictDeep Value (< 20%)
Synced 2026-10-26Interactive chart

NUPL (Cycle-Normalized)

v2 Normalized
Optimism

Cycle-Normalized NUPL (rescaled across trailing 4-year structural floor/ceiling). Restores sub-zero capitulation in the ETF era.

Cycle Low (2026-06-30 @ $59K)0.15 (v2) vs +0.09 (v1)
4Y Dampened VerdictHope
Synced 2026-10-26Interactive chart

Power Law Oscillator (4Y Cycle Rank)

v2 Normalized
Deep Value (< 20%)

4-Year Rolling Cycle Percentile of Power Law residuals. Fixes late-cycle top compression.

Cycle Low (2026-06-30 @ $59K)0.0% (4Y Rank) vs 5.6% (All-Time)
4Y Dampened VerdictDeep Value (< 20%)
Synced 2026-10-26Interactive chart

Fibonacci 0.618 (Auto-Peak Anchor)

v2 Normalized
Early Post-Bottom (1.39x)

Auto-detects the true cycle peak ($134,560) to compute the live 0.618 Golden Pocket.

Cycle Low (2026-06-30 @ $59K)1.019x of $57,422
4Y Dampened VerdictHeld 0.618 Golden Pocket
Synced 2026-10-26Interactive chart

Ichimoku Cloud

Death Cross Active

Monthly Tenkan/Kijun death cross — BTC has bottomed 3-4 months after each historical cross

Synced 2026-10-31Interactive chart

Sharpe Ratio

Euphoria

90-day risk-adjusted returns — extreme negative readings have marked every major cycle bottom

Synced 2026-10-26Interactive chart

Mayer Multiple (Dampened Z-Score)

v2 Normalized
Healthy Trend

Dampened Mayer Z-Score (4-year normalized log Price/200DMA). Removes the 2011 18.5x spike that squashed the 2018-2026 chart.

Cycle Low (2026-06-30 @ $59K)-1.22σ (v2) vs 0.78x (v1)
4Y Dampened VerdictGenerational Buy (< -1.0σ)